No, I am not talking about a new type of dishwashing liquid, but the story behind the 2025 Global Accounts for private registered providers.

The headline that misleads? 

For some, the RSH’s 2025 Global Accounts headline figures have strengthened their sense of impending doom – a further drop in sector-wide EBITDA MRI interest cover to 87% underlines that expenditure and debt costs continue to outstrip income. But is this headline misleading? Strip out the 19 largest providers with 40,000+ homes that between them hold 42% of England’s social housing stock, and EBITDA MRI interest cover rises to an average of 97%. The challenges for the largest are well-documented: homes concentrated in high-cost London, high-rise blocks with building and fire safety defects, and the run off of ambitious development programmes before repairs and maintenance costs escalated. But what do the Global Accounts suggest for the other 180 or so RPs with between 1,000 and 40,000 homes?   

Do smaller providers hold the advantage? 

For smaller and mid-sized RPs, the picture is very different and, potentially, can be much more positive. On average, small diverse RPs have interest cover well above 120%, so, in these circumstances, scale does not necessarily equal resilience; agility and clarity matter more. In fact, the very size that once gave large RPs confidence may now expose them to additional cost. After all, the RSH’s 2025 regression analysis shows that, whilst RPs tend to improve in their management efficiencies up to 40,000 homes, they typically have higher management costs per home above this housing stock figure[1].

The opportunity some should not ignore 

This is the moment for some RPs to double down on clarity, not conformity. Focusing on individual opportunity, with an appropriate degree of scepticism of the overall sector outlook, is prudent. If your RP can articulate a credible long-term development and funding plan, demonstrate sensible financial capacity, and prepare for Decent Homes 2, MEES, and Awaab’s Law, you are primed to capitalise on the £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme at a point when many legacy developing RPs may be otherwise occupied.  The launch of the National Housing Bank and other low-cost loans could also assist. Though we wait to hear the final decision on rent convergence, the government has committed to long-term certainty on rents and so, for some RPs, this could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity. 

The risks of standing still

I recognise the key concerns in the sector: interest rates have normalised after a decade of low rates, which impacts each RP as they refinance. Sector-wide repairs and maintenance costs have increased by 42% between 2020 and 2025, driving total spend in this area to a record £9.6bn in 2025. However, these are now more manageable risks for well-governed organisations with disciplined strategies and a detailed, up-to-date understanding of the condition of their homes. The real danger lies in sector-wide groupthink: boards paralysed by headlines rather than empowered by their own resilience. 

Stock disposals are another area where boards must tread carefully. More than half of the £18.1bn forecast receipts from disposals are to come from just nine large RPs, likely forced into this strategy by the issues they are facing. An RP must always be able to articulate why it is selling homes. Gaining a one-off capital receipt to meet day-to-day spend is not sustainable in the long term and risks damaging trust in your organisation and the sector at large if it does not achieve a clearly articulated (and aligned) strategic goal.

The political and reputational imperative 

If RPs that have the capacity to develop choose not to after the sector has secured so many positive investment decisions from the Government, the consequences could be severe for both the sector and those in housing need. When 1.5m homes are not built and the blame game starts, the Government and the public may question why the sector appeared to sit on its hands and turn to others who offer to deliver. Together, this pressure could jeopardise both future funding and the privileged status of RPs as grant recipients. RPs must recognise that this is not just a financial decision – it is a reputational and political one. Those who fail to act when they can risk damaging the sector’s reputation for delivery. 

The bottom line 

The Global Accounts headline is all that it is - a headline. Smaller can mean smarter. Smarter RPs will seize this moment, not shrink from it. In a sector where risk and opportunity are unevenly spread, those who understand their own position – and act boldly – may emerge mightier than ever before. 

If you would like to discuss your future plans with us, please contact me or one of my fellow partners at Anthony Collins.